China's North Korea dilemma grows worse: experts

BEIJING: North Korea's third nuclear test presents China under its new leader Xi Jinping with an unwelcome choice -- confront its defiant ally or accept having an uncontrollable atomic state on its border.

Beijing is the North's most important backer, providing its neighbour with trade and aid that have enabled the regime to survive since the 1950-53 Korean War, which historians estimate killed as many as 400,000 Chinese troops.

In China's strategic thinking, North Korea is a "buffer zone" that prevents the 28,500 US troops stationed in South Korea encroaching on its own border.

But with Kim Jong-Un's government again the subject of international fury, the relationship risks increasingly becoming an irritant for Beijing, analysts say.

"More and more people realise that North Korea is more like a security liability than a security asset to China," said Jia Qingguo, an expert on China's foreign relations at Peking University.

"China treasures stability in the Korean peninsula. But the problem is, North Korea's action is very destabilising."

He added that Beijing's thinking on the North would not "change overnight" and that Xi's ascent -- he now heads the Communist Party, and is due to become state president next month -- was unlikely to drive a new approach in itself.

Many social media users in China want a tougher line against North Korea. One this week likened Pyongyang to a "crazy dog" that had humiliated Beijing.

But while expressing "firm opposition" to Tuesday's blast, China's foreign ministry reiterated calls for calm and restraint and did not mention potential reprisals, echoing its statements after the North's tests in 2006 and 2009.

As then, it stated its support for denuclearisation on the Korean peninsula and backed a six-party dialogue that groups China, the United States, both Koreas, Japan and Russia. However, the forum has been moribund since 2009.

Meanwhile the official Xinhua news agency said in a commentary that the latest blast was an attempt by a "desperate DPRK" (North Korea) to keep a perceived external threat at bay, stressing its "strong sense of insecurity".

"I think China probably needs to act somehow, at least do something to show that this time China is serious," said Jing-Dong Yuan, an Asia security expert at the University of Sydney.

"There also needs to be serious discussion within Chinese leadership" about the strategic value of their wayward neighbour, he added.

Relations with the North are largely the preserve of the Communist Party's international liaison department and the People's Liberation Army. Both are believed to back the longstanding policy of support, despite the strains.

As Pyongyang's primary energy supplier, any move by Beijing to turn off the taps, even partially and temporarily, would have immediate impact.

But China fears that a crisis in North Korea would bring refugees flooding across the border, a US-backed escalation in the region, or even ultimately a unified Korea with a US military presence on its doorstep.

Authorities might only feel compelled to act if tensions escalated dramatically, for example, if Japan and South Korea began to consider their own nuclear options, Yuan said.

Yet seeking to wind down the situation at such a late stage might prove too little too late, he continued, and in the meantime Beijing was effectively giving Pyongyang a green light on its nuclear ambitions.

"It has issued strong statements but it has not really seriously followed up with specific actions," he said.

"North Korea knows pretty well that China is concerned about instability and uncertainty, so they basically continue with their own policy, disregarding Chinese pleas or whatever internal message they send to the North Korean leaders."

Beijing voted for a resolution last month by the UN Security Council, where it has a veto, expanding sanctions against Pyongyang for a rocket launch in December, but only after lengthy negotiations to soften the punishment.

Jia said support in China for a tougher line on North Korea was growing, and he expected Beijing to show more backing for international measures against Pyongyang, but it would still look to balance that with stability.

"The international community should not expect too much from China," he said.

-AFP/gn

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Helping American designers make it in America (video)

As a graduate of the Pratt Institute with experience working for big names in the apparel and accessory industries, Matthew Bennett was ready to work independently to create his own watch label. While he might have had great ideas and a fabulous sense of design, he just couldn't seem to tackle the logistics of running such an operation. He found a manufacturer in Hong Kong that could produce his designs, but it wasn't always seamless. After OKing one production sample, Bennett later received a shipment of 1,000 pieces of defective goods -- goods he couldn't sell or return to the factory. "Manufacturing overseas is such a gamble," says Bennett. "I figured getting a sample would be something that would give me some sort of security to sleep well at night, but I had no way of holding anyone responsible for that as a small business."

After that experience, Bennett knew he had to try to manufacture his watches stateside. But finding an American factory proved to be much more difficult than performing a simple Google search. And if he was having this problem for his watch business, surely designers around the country were struggling with similar issues? "As of right now, it's much easier to find manufacturers on the other side of the globe than it is to find them in your own backyard," he says.

New Web portal links U.S. factories with U.S. designers

Soon after, Bennett teamed up with Tanya Menendez, and the two started flushing out the idea for Maker's Row, a Web site that would serve as an online portal or directory to connect American designers with American factories. "You don't want to divorce the creatives from the creators. The designers -- they want to see this whole manufacturing process, because that's where the innovation comes from. For us to be the catalyst for that is an amazing opportunity," Bennett says.

Two years after the original idea was hatched and eight months after going live, the site has already partnered with more than 1,400 American factories and made tens of thousands of connections between them and designers. Right now it's free for both parties to use the site, but the Maker's Row team has plans to make money from its service in the near future.

Setting Maker's Row apart from an ordinary directory is the education and guidance the site provides entrepreneurial designers. It breaks down the steps to get into production and can steer someone toward the right type of facilities to help with different stages of the manufacturing process. As someone who recently tried to navigate all the twists and turns of a supply chain, Bennett wants to be as transparent as possible to the designers who come after him: "We're concerned about the next generation of small businesses. So reaching out to the designers who are in design school is paramount to us. We want them to become accustomed to our site, using our site as a resource, and we're telling them exactly how to create their own goods."

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Body in burned cabin ID'd as Christopher Dorner

(CBS News) BIG BEAR LAKE, Calif. - Remains of a man who was in a burned California cabin on Tuesday have been positively identified as belonging to that of Christopher Dorner, the former LAPD officer who was suspected of killing four people and was the subject of an intense manhunt, officials confirmed.

The San Bernardino County Coroner's office said the positive identification was made through dental records.

The final hours of the manhunt for Christopher Dorner began when Jim and Karen Reynolds opened the door of one of their rental condos.

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"We had come into the living room and he opened the door and came out at us," said Karen.

"He had the gun drawn," added Jim.

A man believed to be Dorner tied them up.

"He talked to us, trying to calm us down," said Karen, "and saying very frequently he would not kill us."

He then took their car. "We listened for probably a minute or two, wanted to make sure he was gone," said Jim, "sounded quiet. And then we started struggling trying to get loose."

They called 911, triggering a chain of events that ended with Tuesday's shootout in which two sheriffs deputies were shot. Thirty-five-year-old Jeremiah MacKay died from his wounds.

The firefight that we witnessed was intense and we were forced to take cover - however, we left his cell phone on. Early in the standoff you could hear officers suggesting burning the suspect out.

One officer can be heard saying, "Burn that ------ out , burn it down, ------ burn this mother-----"

Four more hours would pass before police used high-powered tear gas. The canisters are known to be a fire hazard.

"We did not intentionally burn down that cabin to get Mr. Dorner out," San Bernandino Sheriff John McMahon had said.

Dorner's body was found in the ashes. It's unclear if the cause of death was from the fire -- or a single shot we heard moments after the cabin ignited.

Meanwhile, investigators looking through a trash bin in Irvine, California, where the first two victims were killed, recovered Dorner's badge, a police uniform, and a high-capacity ammo magazine.

CBS News asked San Bernardino County Sheriff's Department about the audio we recorded, and they declined to comment.

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Pistorius' Girlfriend Saw Self as 'Brainy Bombshell'

Reeva Steenkamp hit the headlines in America today as the alleged murder victim of her boyfriend, Olympic and Paralympic athlete Oscar "Blade Runner" Pistorius -- but in her homeland of South Africa, she already was known as a top model, a men's magazine cover girl and a budding reality show star.

Asked to describe herself in three words, Steenkamp chose, "brainy, blonde, bombshell," according to the website of "Tropika Island of Treasure 5," the reality show on which she was going to be featured starting Saturday.

"She was definitely destined for success," her publicist, Sarit Tomlinson of Capacity Relations, told the BBC. "She was a gorgeous girl both inside and out, and also had a brain. ... She had an incredible entrepreneurial spirit.

"She was an absolute angel -- the sweetest, sweetest human being, kind human being," she told the BBC. "It's very, very sad."

READ: Pistorius Kept Guns in Bedroom for Security: Journalist

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Ice Model Management/AP Photo

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Steenkamp, who police said was 30 but was listed in profiles as 29, burned up social media, describing herself on Instagram as a "cover girl, law graduate, Instagram fanatic," and on Twitter as a "child of God."

"What do you have up your sleeve for your love tomorrow??? #getexcited #ValentinesDay," she tweeted Wednesday, perhaps referring to her boyfriend, Pistorius -- though maybe not.

She had plans to celebrate Valentine's Day this morning by giving a motivational speech to high schoolers in Johannesburg about love, valueing themselves and following their dreams, according to reports.

"I've realized that although Valentine's Day can be a cheesy, money-making stint to most people, it's a day of expressing love across the world," she told the South African celebrity site ZAlebs Wednesday, purportedly just hours before her death. "It doesn't have to only be between lovers, but by telling a friend that you care, or even an old person that they are still appreciated."

Browse through her Instagram account and you'll discover a trove of snapshots documenting vivid moments in the life of a young woman who brought smiles to the faces of those around her.

She was an advocate against violence against women, posting an image of a woman with a hand over her face and the caption, "I woke up in a happy safe home this morning. Not everyone did. Speak out against the rape of individuals in SA. RIP Anene Booysen. #rape #crime #sayNO."

Steenkamp encouraged her thousands of followers on Twitter to fight against sexual abuse, re-tweeting the day before she died, "WEAR BLACK THIS FRIDAY IN SUPPORT AGAINST #RAPE AND WOMAN ABUSE #BLACKFRIDAY."

She showed her religious side by offering this poem on Instagram on Jan. 29:

     "Dear God,

     "I need you. Everyday,
     "Every moment, Every second
     "that I breathe, I need you.

     "I am not strong enough on my own.

     Amen."

"He is listening," read one of the dozen responses to the post - mostly from today. "RIP dear."

Steenkamp was pronounced dead this morning in Pistorius' gated, luxury home in Pretoria, South Africa, with four gunshot wounds to her head and upper body. Pistorius, 26, has been charged with murder.

"I must just say that her future has been cut short," Mike Steenkamp, Reeva Steencamp's uncle, told the Associated Press. "The family at the moment, Barry and June, are devastated."

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South Korea unveils missile it says can hit North's leaders

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea unveiled a cruise missile on Thursday that it said can hit the office of North Korea's leaders, trying to address concerns that it is technologically behind its unpredictable rival which this week conducted its third nuclear test.

South Korean officials declined to say the exact range of the missile but said it could hit targets anywhere in North Korea.

The Defence Ministry released video footage of the missiles being launched from destroyers and submarines striking mock targets. The weapon was previewed in April last year and officials said deployment was now complete.

"The cruise missile being unveiled today is a precision-guided weapon that can identify and strike the window of the office of North Korea's leadership," ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said told reporters.

North Korea has forged ahead with long-range missile development, successfully launching a rocket in December that put a satellite into orbit.

The North's ultimate aim, Washington believes, is to design an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead that could hit the United States.

North Korea, which accuses the United States and its "puppet", South Korea, of war-mongering on an almost daily basis, is likely to respond angrily to South Korea flexing its muscles.

North Korea, technically still at war with the South after their 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty, carried out its third nuclear test on Tuesday, drawing condemnation from around the world including its only major ally China.

The test and the threat of more unspecified actions from Pyongyang have raised tensions on the Korean peninsula as the South prepares to inaugurate a new president on February 25.

"The situation prevailing on the Korean peninsula at present is so serious that even a slight accidental case may lead to an all-out war which can disturb the whole region," North Korea's official KCNA news agency said.

(Reporting by Ju-min Park; Editing by Nick Macfie)

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Chavez in 'tough' alternative treatment: Maduro

CARACAS: Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez is undergoing "tough and complex" alternative medical treatment in Cuba, his handpicked successor Nicolas Maduro said Wednesday.

"Our comandante is undergoing additional treatments," Maduro told state-owned VTV television after returning from a previously unannounced visit to Cuba to check up on the ailing president.

"The treatments are extremely tough and complex."

Declining to provide details about the therapy, the vice president insisted that Chavez was facing his medical travails with a "fighting spirit" despite more than two months of absence from the public eye.

Maduro said Chavez's brother Adan accompanied him on his trip to Havana, and that he met there with other relatives of the president, as well as his medical team.

National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello was due to visit Chavez in Cuba in the coming days, according to Maduro.

Chavez, 58, has not been seen or heard from since his last cancer operation on December 11 in Havana, and any news about his health is closely monitored by the Venezuelans. Chavez is said to be still recovering at a hospital in Cuba's capital.

The fiery Venezuelan leader was too sick to attend his own inauguration to a third term on January 10, prompting the government to delay the swearing-in indefinitely under an interpretation of the constitution that was heavily criticized by the opposition.

Throughout his illness, first detected in June 2011, Chavez has refused to relinquish the powers of the presidency.

- AFP/ck

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Hackers can easily breach Emergency Alert Systems

Hackers broke into several television stations' Emergency Alert Systems this week and broadcast that zombies were "rising from their graves" and "attacking the living."

While a comical hoax, security consultancy firm IOActive warns that this type of behavior is dangerous and not that hard for hackers to do, according to Computerworld. This week it's zombies, but next time it could be something that might make people really panic, such as an anthrax or terrorist attack.

IOActive says that devices used by TV and radio stations to air emergency alerts have critical vulnerabilities that make them susceptible to cyberattacks. If these devices are breached, hackers could feasibly broadcast anything they like to millions of viewers and listeners.

"We found some devices directly connected to the Internet and we think that it's possible that hackers are currently exploiting some of these vulnerabilities or some other flaws," chief technology officer of IOActive Cesar Cerrudo told Computerworld.

Cerrudo says that at least two types of Emergency Alert System devices are especially vulnerable to attacks. "We contacted CERT [U.S. Computer Emergency Readiness Team] almost a month ago and CERT is coordinating with the vendor to get the issues fixed," he said.

The hacker that got into the television stations' systems for the zombie hoax reportedly used a "back door" attack.

"It has been determined that a 'back door' attack allowed the hacker to access the security of the EAS equipment," station manager for ABC 10, one of the stations affected, Cynthia Thompson wrote in a blog post. "The nature of the message Monday night was not necessarily dangerous, but the fact that the system was vulnerable to outside intrusion is a danger."

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Source: American, US Airways merger approved

Updated 8:13 PM ET

(MoneyWatch) CBS News has learned that the boards of American Airlines and US Airways (LCC) have approved a merger that would create the world's biggest carrier.

Under the deal, which is expected to be unveiled Thursday if the timeline isn't moved up sooner and there are no last-minute snags, the combined airline would keep the "American" name. It would still require federal approval, although that is virtually ensured. US Air CEO Doug Parker is expected to lead the combined company.

A merger of US Air and American would surpass a 2010 tie-up between United Airlines (UAL) and Continental and a 2008 deal joining Delta (DAL) and Northwest. The merged American would be the largest carrier and sport a market valuation of roughly $10 billion.

Although airlines tout such consolidation as a way to cut costs and expand service amid intense competition, whether industry mergers raise fares is an open question. Many analysts say yes because reduced competition in any business often results in higher prices. One study found that ticket prices went up more than 20 percent between Detroit and Atlanta after Delta bought Northwest. Fares went up more than 30 percent on routes between Chicago and Houston, as well as Newark to San Francisco, after the United-Continental deal.

In seeking to run more efficiently, merging airlines also often cut capacity and eliminate routes. 

Play Video

American close to merger with U.S. Airways

Other analysts are more optimistic about the potential benefits to travelers. They say the three largest U.S. airlines still must compete with discount carriers such as Southwest (LUV), which has flourished for years by offering low-cost flights and no-frills service.

The consolidation trend is largely blamed on the price of fuel. Oil now costs so much more per barrel than it did 10 years ago that one analyst says the margin of profit on many flights has shrunk to the value of a single seat. That means an airline can lose money if it flies with one single empty middle seat. The days of elbow room are over.

American Airlines has been operating under court supervision since declaring bankruptcy in November 2011.

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Ship Stranded: Love Boat to Horror Honeymoon

A Texas couple's fantasy wedding quickly turned into a nightmare honeymoon when the fire-damaged Carnival Cruise ship carrying them became stranded in the Gulf of Mexico.

Rob Mowlam, 37, and Stephanie Stevenson, 27, of Nederland, Texas, got married on the Carnival Triumph on Saturday. The four-day cruise was meant to be back to shore on Monday, but was left disabled by an engine fire on Sunday.

The ship is being slowly towed to shore and is expected to dock in Mobile, Ala., on Thursday if weather permits. The vessel is without air conditioning, many working toilets and some restaurant service. Passengers, many who are sleeping in tents on deck, have told ABC News the smell on the ship is foul.

That is the honeymoon setting for Mowlam and Stevenson.

"[Rob Mowlam] had been with his girlfriend, or fiance, for a long period of time and they just took the next step," Mowlam's brother James Mowlam III told ABCNews.com. "The captain is the king of the world when they're on the boat and he hitched them up."

James Mowlam said he was shocked when he heard about the stranded boat and the increasingly dire conditions on the ship.

"It is an atrocious scene to be subjected to," he said.

Mowlam said he has not been able to communicate with his brother, but that his father has had sporadic communication with him.

"It would be my guess that this would probably not be on anyone's great list of memorable wedding experiences," Mowlam said with a laugh. "Although, my mom told him that she was hoping they had a memorable wedding and I think this would classify as a memorable wedding experience."

Lt. Cmdr. Paul McConnell/U.S. Coast Guard/AP Photo

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The bride's brother, Justin Davis, told ABCNews.com that his sister works for a doctor's office and the cruise was a gift from the doctor to the staff.

Davis has not been able to speak to Stevenson but said that her two young sons are being cared for by her mother. He said his sister is tough and he guesses she's probably not scared.

"She might be a little aggravated at the situation, but I'd say she's [probably] handling it really well," he said.

Others on the ship do not seem to be handling the situation so well.

Elderly and disabled passengers aboard the ship are struggling to cope with the worsening conditions, according to at least one passenger.

"Elderly and handicap are struggling, the smell is gross," passenger Ann Barlow text-messaged ABC News overnight. "Our room is leaking sewage."

The head of Carnival Cruise Lines said the British-U.S.-owned company was working hard to ensure the thousands of passengers stranded on the disabled ship were as comfortable as possible while the vessel was being towed to a port in Alabama.

"I need to apologize to our guests and to our families that have been affected by a very difficult situation," Carnival Cruise Lines president and CEO Gerry Cahill said at a news conference Tuesday evening.

It was the first time since a fire erupted in Triumph's engine room Sunday, knocking out its four engines, that a company representative had spoken publicly. The Triumph, with roughly 4,200 people on board, was left bobbing like a 100,000-ton cork for more than 24 hours. Giant sea-faring tugboats then hooked up to the ship and began towing the nearly 900-foot-long ship to land.

Carnival spokeswoman Joyce Oliva told The Associated Press Tuesday that a passenger with a pre-existing medical condition was taken off the ship as a precaution. Everyone else will likely have to weather conditions such as scarce running water, no air conditioning and long lines for food.

Back on land, passenger Barlow's 11-year-old twins told ABC News Tuesday they are worried as more passengers continue to talk about living with limited power and sanitation.

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North Korean nuclear test draws anger, including from China

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea conducted its third nuclear test on Tuesday in defiance of U.N. resolutions, drawing condemnation from around the world, including from its only major ally, China, which summoned the North Korean ambassador to protest.

Pyongyang said the test was an act of self-defense against "U.S. hostility" and threatened stronger steps if necessary.

The test puts pressure on U.S. President Barack Obama on the day of his State of the Union speech and also puts China in a tight spot, since it comes in defiance of Beijing's admonishments to North Korea to avoid escalating tensions.

The U.N. Security Council held an emergency meeting at which its members, including China, "strongly condemned" the test and vowed to start work on appropriate measures in response, the president of the council said.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the third of his line to rule the country, has presided over two long-range rocket launches and a nuclear test during his first year in power, pursuing policies that have propelled his impoverished and malnourished country closer to becoming a nuclear weapons power.

North Korea said the test had "greater explosive force" than those it conducted in 2006 and 2009. Its KCNA news agency said it had used a "miniaturized" and lighter nuclear device, indicating it had again used plutonium, which is suitable for use as a missile warhead.

China, which has shown signs of increasing exasperation with the recent bellicose tone of its reclusive neighbor, summoned the North Korean ambassador in Beijing and protested sternly, the Foreign Ministry said.

Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said China was "strongly dissatisfied and resolutely opposed" to the test and urged North Korea to "stop any rhetoric or acts that could worsen situations and return to the right course of dialogue and consultation as soon as possible".

Analysts said the test was a major embarrassment to China, which is a permanent member of the Security Council and North Korea's sole major economic and diplomatic ally.

Obama called the test a "highly provocative act" that hurt regional stability.

"The danger posed by North Korea's threatening activities warrants further swift and credible action by the international community. The United States will also continue to take steps necessary to defend ourselves and our allies," Obama said.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice said Washington and its allies intended to "augment the sanctions regime" already in place due to Pyongyang's previous atomic tests. North Korea is already one of the most heavily sanctioned states in the world and has few external economic links that can be targeted.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the test was a "grave threat" that could not be tolerated.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov urged North Korea to abandon its nuclear arms program and return to talks. NATO condemned the test as an "irresponsible act."

South Korea, still technically at war with North Korea after a 1950-53 civil war ended in a mere truce, also denounced the test. Obama spoke to South Korean President Lee Myung-bak on Tuesday and told him the United States "remains steadfast in its defense commitments" to Korea, the White House said.

MAXIMUM RESTRAINT

North Korea's Foreign Ministry said the test was "only the first response we took with maximum restraint".

"If the United States continues to come out with hostility and complicates the situation, we will be forced to take stronger, second and third responses in consecutive steps," it said in a statement carried by the official KCNA news agency.

North Korea - which gave the U.S. State Department advance warning of the test - often threatens the United States and its "puppet", South Korea, with destruction in colorful terms.

North Korea told the U.N. disarmament forum in Geneva that it would never bow to resolutions on its nuclear program and that prospects were "gloomy" for the denuclearization of the divided Korean peninsula because of a "hostile" U.S. policy.

Suzanne DiMaggio, an analyst at the Asia Society in New York, said North Korea had embarrassed China with the test. "China's inability to dissuade North Korea from carrying through with this third nuclear test reveals Beijing's limited influence over Pyongyang's actions in unusually stark terms," she said.

Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, said: "The test is hugely insulting to China, which now can be expected to follow through with threats to impose sanctions."

The magnitude of the explosion was roughly twice that of the 2009 test, according to the Vienna-based Comprehensive Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty Organization. The U.S. Geological Survey said that a seismic event measuring 5.1 magnitude had occurred.

U.S. intelligence agencies were analyzing the event and found that North Korea probably conducted an underground nuclear explosion with a yield of "approximately several kilotons", the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said.

Nuclear experts have described Pyongyang's previous two tests as puny by international standards. The yield of the 2006 test has been estimated at less than 1 kiloton (1,000 tons of TNT equivalent) and the second at some 2-7 kilotons, compared with 20 kilotons for a Nagasaki-type bomb.

Initial indications are that the test involved the latest version of a plutonium-based prototype weapon, according to one current and one former U.S. national security official. Both previous tests involved plutonium. If it turns out the test was of a new uranium-based weapon, it would show that North Korea has made more progress on uranium enrichment than previously thought.

The United States uses WC-135 Constant Phoenix "sniffer" aircraft to collect samples to identify nuclear explosions. These would need to be deployed quickly to detect whether highly enriched uranium rather than plutonium was used because uranium decays to undetectable levels within a matter of days. Plutonium takes much longer to decay.

North Korea trumpeted news of the test on its state television channel to patriotic music against a backdrop of its national flag.

"It was confirmed that the nuclear test that was carried out at a high level in a safe and perfect manner using a miniaturized and lighter nuclear device with greater explosive force than previously did not pose any negative impact on the surrounding ecological environment," KCNA said.

North Korea linked the test to its technical prowess in launching a long-range rocket in December, a move that triggered the U.N. sanctions, backed by China, that Pyongyang said prompted it to take Tuesday's action.

The North's ultimate aim, Washington believes, is to design an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead that could hit the United States. North Korea says the program is aimed at putting satellites in space.

Despite its three nuclear tests and long-range rocket tests, North Korea is not believed to be close to manufacturing a nuclear missile capable of hitting the United States.

It used plutonium in previous nuclear tests and before Tuesday there had been speculation that it would use highly enriched uranium so as to conserve its plutonium stocks, as testing eats into its limited supply of materials to construct a nuclear bomb.

"VICIOUS CYCLE"

When Kim Jong-un, who is 30, took power after his father's death in December 2011, there were hopes that he would bring reforms and end Kim Jong-il's "military first" policies.

Instead, North Korea, whose economy is smaller than it was 20 years ago and where a third of children are believed to be malnourished, appears to be trapped in a cycle of sanctions followed by further provocations.

"The more North Korea shoots missiles, launches satellites or conducts nuclear tests, the more the U.N. Security Council will impose new and more severe sanctions," said Shen Dingli, a professor at Shanghai's Fudan University. "It is an endless, vicious cycle."

Options for the international community appear to be in short supply. Diplomats at the United Nations said negotiations on new sanctions could take weeks since China is likely to resist tough new measures for fear they could lead to further retaliation by the North Korean leadership.

Beijing has also been concerned that tougher sanctions could further weaken North Korea's economy and prompt a flood of refugees into China.

Tuesday's action appeared to have been timed for the run-up to February 16 anniversary celebrations of Kim Jong-il's birthday, as well as to achieve maximum international attention.

Significantly, the test comes at a time of political transition in China, Japan and South Korea, and as Obama begins his second term. The U.S. president will likely have to tweak his State of the Union address due to be given on Tuesday.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is bedding down a new government and South Korea's new president, Park Geun-hye, is preparing to take office on February 25.

China too is in the midst of a once-in-a-decade leadership transition to Xi Jinping, who takes office in March. Both Abe and Xi are staunch nationalists.

The longer-term game plan from Pyongyang may be to restart international talks aimed at winning food and financial aid. China urged it to return to the stalled "six-party" talks on its nuclear program, hosted by China and including the two Koreas, the United States, Japan and Russia.

Its puny economy and small diplomatic reach mean that North Korea struggles to win attention on the global stage - other than through nuclear tests and attacks on South Korea, the last of which was made in 2010.

"Now the next step for North Korea will be to offer talks... - any form to start up discussion again to bring things to their advantage," predicted Jeung Young-tae, senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul.

(Additional reporting by Jack Kim, Christine Kim and Jumin Park in SEOUL; Linda Sieg in TOKYO; Louis Charbonneau and Michelle Nichols at the UNITED NATIONS; Fredrik Dahl in VIENNA; Michael Martina and Chen Aizhu in BEIJING; Mette Fraende in COPENHAGEN; Adrian Croft, Charlie Dunmore and Justyna Pawlak in BRUSSELS; Mark Hosenball, Paul Eckert, Roberta Rampton, Tabassum Zakaria and Jeff Mason in WASHINGTON; Editing by Nick Macfie, Claudia Parsons and David Brunnstrom)

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